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Is good past performance an indication for good performance in the future?

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N Jensen"s Alpha: = RMF - [RF + (RM -RF) betaMF] n Studies show that alpha has been given by: -0.09% u 1955 - 1964 u 1960 - 1969 0.6% -0.2% u 1970 - 1974 showing that mutual funds have not been very good in earning abnormal returns. At any given time, it can be shown that one of them will be ahead almost all the time. Being ahead more than 90% of the time is much higher than that he has been ahead between 45% to 55% of the time. Is good past performance an indication for good performance in the future?

 

Paper#19430 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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