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MM305 Quantitative Analysis for Managers Unit 4 Project




1. Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Solomon has been thinking about starting her own independent gas station. Susan?s problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of the station and a number of marketing factors related to oil industry and demand for gasoline. After careful analysis, Susan developed the following table;Size of Gasoline Station;Good Market ($);Fair Market ($);Poor Market ($);Small;$50,000;$20,000;-$10,000;Medium;$80,000;$30,000;-$20,000;Large;$100,000;$30,000;-$40,000;Very Large;$300,000;$25,000;-$160,000;a. Develop a decision table for this decision.;b. What is the Maximax decision?;c. What is the Maximin decision?;d. What is the equally likely decision?;e. What is the criterion of realism decision? Use? = 0.8.;f. Develop an Opportunity Loss Table;g. What is the Minimax Regret Decision?;2. A concessionaire for the local ballpark has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decisions) and states of nature (size of crowd).;Stocking Decision;Large Crowd ($);Average Crowd ($);Small Crowd ($);Large Inventory;$22,000;$12,000;-$2,000;Average Inventory;$15,000;$12,000;$6,000;Small Inventory;$9,000;$6,000;$5,000;If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.30 for a large crowd, 0.50 for an average crowd, and 0.20 for a small crowd, determine;a. The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV).;b. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI).


Paper#19986 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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