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##### saint gba334 midterm and all week quizes

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Midterm Exam;Question 1. 1. Stating that two events are statistically independent means that the probability of one event occurring is independent of the probability of the other event having occurred. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 2. 2. A bakery buys sugar in 15-pound bags. The bakery uses 5000 bags of sugar each year. Carrying costs are $20 per bag per year. Ordering costs are estimated at $5 per order. Assume that the bakery is open 250 days a year and its daily demand is estimated at 20 bags. It takes 5 days for each order of sugar to be filled. What are the total annual holding costs? (Points: 2);$500;$1000;$20;$750;$250;Question 3. 3. Consider a standard 52-card deck of cards. The probability of drawing either a seven or a black card is 7/13. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 4. 4. Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the ?best of the worst? is the approach called: (Points: 2);maximax;maximin;Laplace;minimax regret;expected monetary value;Question 5. 5. Error is the difference in the actual value and the predicted value. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 6. 6. If computing a causal linear regression model of Y = a + bX and the resultant r2 is very near zero, then one would be able to conclude that: (Points: 2);Y = a + bX is a good forecasting method.;Y= a + bX is not a good forecasting method.;a multiple linear regression model is a good forecasting method for the data.;a multiple linear regression model is not a good forecasting method for the data.;none of the above.;Question 7. 7. A scatter diagram is a graphical depiction of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 8. 8. A discrete random variable has a mean of 400 and a variance of 64. What is the standard deviation? (Points: 2);64;8;20;400;None of the above;Question 9. 9. If two events are mutually exclusive, then: (Points: 2);their probabilities can be added.;they may also be collectively exhaustive.;the joint probability is equal to 0.;if one occurs, the other cannot occur.;All of the above;Question 10. 10. Saying that a set of events is mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive implies that one and only one of the events can occur on any trial. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 11. 11. A seasonal index of __________ indicates that the season is average. (Points: 2);10;100;0.5;0;1;Question 12. 12. The use of "expert opinion" is one way to approximate subjective probability values. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 13. 13. All of the following are real computer applications that perform quantitative analysis except: (Points: 2);Solver in Excel.;Goal Seek in Excel.;Excel QM.;POM-QM for Windows.;QA for Windows.;Question 14. 14. The number of phone calls coming into a switchboard in the next five minutes will either be 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. The probabilities are the same for each of these (1/7). If X is the number of calls arriving in a five-minute time period, what is the mean of X? (Points: 2);2;3;4;5;None of the above;Question 15. 15. Which Excel feature is an optimization technique that can maximize or minimize a quantity given a set of limitations or constraints? (Points: 2);Optimizer;Goal Seek;Analysis Tool-Pak;Algorithm Builder;Solver;Question 16. 16. Suppose that 10 golfers enter a tournament and that their respective skill levels are approximately the same. Six of the entrants are female and two of those are older than 40 years old. Three of the men are older than 40 years old. What is the probability that the winner will be a female who is older than 40 years old? (Points: 2);0.000;1.100;0.198;0.200;0.900;Question 17. 17. Which of the following statement(s) is/are true regarding the advantages of mathematical modeling? (Points: 2);Models accurately represent reality.;Models can help decision makers formulate problems.;Models can save time.;Models may be the only way to solve some large and complex problems in a timely manner.;All of the above are true.;Question 18. 18. The classical method of determining probability is: (Points: 2);subjective probability.;marginal probability.;objective probability.;joint probability.;conditional probability.;Question 19. 19. Interviews, statistical sampling, and company reports provide input data for quantitative analysis models. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 20. 20. A bakery buys sugar in 15-pound bags. The bakery uses 5000 bags of sugar each year. Carrying costs are $20 per bag per year. Ordering costs are estimated at $5 per order. Assume that the bakery is open 250 days a year and its daily demand is estimated at 20 bags. It takes 5 days for each order of sugar to be filled. What is the total cost of ordering and carrying sugar? (Points: 2);$50;$100;$25;$1000;$500;Question 21. 21. An urn contains seven blue and three yellow chips. If the drawing of chips is done with replacement, what is the probability of drawing a yellow chip on the second draw given that a yellow chip was drawn on the first draw. (Points: 2);0.027;0.210;0.300;0.700;Question 22. 22. Suppose that we determine the probability of a warm winter based on the number of warm winters experienced over the past 10 years. In this case, we have used: (Points: 2);relative frequency;the classical method;the logical method;subjective probability;None of the above;Question 23. 23. A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager.;Alternative Bid Accepted Bid Rejected;Buy 1 machine $10 $5;Buy 2 machines $30 $4;Buy 3 machines $40 $2;Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the maximax criterion? (Points: 2);Buy 1 machine;Buy 2 machines;Buy 3 machines;Question 24. 24. A local ice cream shop sells 10,000 cones of vanilla-flavored ice cream each year. The cones are ordered from an outside supplier and it takes 5 days for each shipment of cones to arrive. Ordering costs are estimated at $15 per order. Carrying costs are $5 per cone per year. Assume that the ice cream shop is open 250 days a year. What is the reorder point (ROP)? (Points: 2);50 cones;100 cones;150 cones;200 cones;Question 25. 25. Consider the following payoff table that represents the profits earned for each alternative (A, B, and C) under the states of nature S1, S2, and S3.;S1 S2 S3;A $60 $145 $120;B $75 $125 $110;C $95 $85 $130;Refer to the payoff table. Using the Laplace criterion, what would be the highest expected payoff? (Points: 2);$103.3;$108.3;$120;$125;$145;Question 26. 26. A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time? (Points: 2);2-4 weeks;1 month to 1 year;2-4 years;5-10 years;20 years;Question 27. 27. What is the formula for the break-even point of a simple profit model? (Points: 2);Fixed cost / variable cost per unit;(Selling price per unit ? variable cost per unit) / fixed cost;Fixed cost / (selling price per unit ? variable cost per unit);Fixed cost / (variable cost per unit ? selling price per unit);Selling price per unit ? (fixed cost / variable cost per unit);Question 28. 28. A company is considering producing two new electronic games designed for the popular Gameboy toy. Based on market data, management believes there is a 60 percent chance that a ?cops and robbers? game will be successful and a 40 percent chance that a ?let's play house? game will be successful. As these products are completely different, it may be assumed that the success of one is totally independent of the success of the other. If two products are introduced to the market, what is the probability that both are successful? (Points: 2);0.12;0.60;0.36;0.24;None of the above;Question 29. 29. Summing the error values in a regression model is misleading because negative errors cancel out positive errors. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 30. 30. If we roll a single die twice, the probability that the sum of the dots showing on the two rolls equals four (4), is 1/6. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 31. 31. Which of the following is a technique used to determine forecasting accuracy? (Points: 2);Exponential smoothing;Moving average;Regression;Delphi method;Mean absolute percent error;Question 32. 32. The economic order quantity (EOQ) formula assumes that all input data are known with certainty. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 33. 33. Our department store is having a sale on personal computers, of which three are in stock (no rain checks). There is a certain probability of selling none. The probability of selling one is twice as great as the probability of selling none. The probability of selling two is three times the probability of selling none. Finally, the probability of selling all the personal computers is four times as great as the probability of selling none.;Using the above information, what is the probability of selling two personal computers? Hint: Let the probability of selling none equal x. (Points: 2);0.24;0.27;0.3;0.33;Question 34. 34. A series of steps or procedures that are repeated is known as an algorithm. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 35. 35. Model variables can be controllable or uncontrollable. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 36. 36. In a good regression model, the residual plot shows: (Points: 2);a cone pattern.;an arched pattern.;a random pattern.;an increasing pattern.;a decreasing pattern.;Question 37. 37. A production process is known to produce a particular item in such a way that five percent of these are defective. If two items are randomly selected as they come off the production line, what is the probability that the second item will be defective? (Points: 2);0.05;0.005;0.18;0.20;None of the above;Question 38. 38. A bakery buys sugar in 15-pound bags. The bakery uses 5000 bags of sugar each year. Carrying costs are $20 per bag per year. Ordering costs are estimated at $5 per order. Assume that the bakery is open 250 days a year and its daily demand is estimated at 20 bags. It takes 5 days for each order of sugar to be filled. What is the average inventory held in a given cycle? (Points: 2);0;50;25;100;75;Question 39. 39. Mutually exclusive events exist if only one of the events can occur on any one trial. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 40. 40. If the sale of ice cream and pizza are independent, then as ice cream sales decrease by 60 percent during the winter months, pizza sales will: (Points: 2);increase by 60 percent.;increase by 40 percent.;decrease by 60 percent.;decrease by 40 percent.;be unrelated.;Question 41. 41. In the exponential smoothing with trend adjustment forecasting method, missing something is the: (Points: 2);slope of the trend line.;new forecast.;Y-axis intercept.;independent variable.;trend smoothing constant.;Question 42. 42. Bob White is conducting research on monthly expenses for medical care, including over-the-counter medicine. His dependent variable is monthly expenses for medical care while his independent variable is number of family members. Below is his Excel output.;Click here to view an Excel version of this output;Midterm essay #3;Referring to the information above, the significance F-test, is this model a good prediction equation? (Points: 2);Yes;No;Question 43. 43. The probability, P, of any event or state of nature occurring is greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 44. 44. The coefficient of determination resulting from a particular regression analysis was 0.85. What was the slope of the regression line? (Points: 2);0.85;-0.85;0.922;There is insufficient information to answer the question.;None of the above;Question 45. 45. Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130 (listed from oldest to most recent). What is the enrollment forecast for next semester using exponential smoothing with an alpha = 0.2? Assume that an initial forecast for the first semester was 120 (so the forecast and the actual were the same). (Points: 2);118.96;121.17;130;120;None of the above;Question 46. 46. Suppose that 10 golfers enter a tournament and that their respective skill levels are approximately the same. What is the probability that one of the first three golfers that registered for the tournament will win? (Points: 2);0.100;0.001;0.300;0.299;0.700;Question 47. 47. A medium-term forecast typically covers a two- to four-year time horizon. (Points: 2);True;False;Question 48. 48. The number of cell phone minutes used by high school seniors follows a normal distribution with a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. What is the probability that a student uses fewer than 400 minutes? (Points: 2);0;0.023;0.159;0.977;None of the above;Question 49. 49. As one increases the number of periods used in the calculation of a moving average: (Points: 2);greater emphasis is placed on more recent data.;less emphasis is placed on more recent data.;the emphasis placed on more recent data remains the same.;it requires a computer to automate the calculations.;one is usually looking for a long-term prediction.;Question 50. 50. The number of cars passing through an intersection in the next five minutes can usually be described by the: (Points: 2);normal distribution.;uniform distribution.;exponential distribution.;Poisson distribution.;None of the above;quiz 2;Quiz 1;Question 1. 1. A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager.;Alternative Bid Accepted Bid Rejected;Buy 1 machine $10 $5;Buy 2 machines $30 $4;Buy 3 machines $40 $2;Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the criterion of realism with alpha = 0.8? (Points: 3);Buy 1 machine;Buy 2 machines;Buy 3 machines;Question 2. 2. Consider the following payoff table that represents the profits earned for each alternative (A, B, and C) under the states of nature S1, S2, and S3.;S1 S2 S3;A $60 $145 $120;B $75 $125 $110;C $95 $85 $130;Using the maximin criterion, what would be the highest expected payoff? (Points: 3);$145;$125;$85;$75;$60;Question 3. 3. A bakery must decide how many pies to prepare for the upcoming weekend. The bakery has the option to make 50, 100, or 150 pies. Assume that demand for the pies can be 50, 100, or 150. Each pie costs $5 to make and sells for $7. Unsold pies are donated to a nearby charity center. Assume that there is no opportunity cost for lost sales.;Refer to the information above. Assume that the bakery has obtained the following probability information regarding demand for the pies: P(50) = 0.3, P(100) = 0.5, and P(150) = 0.2.;Which alternative should be chosen using the expected monetary value (EMV) criterion? (Points: 3);Make 50 pies;Make 100 pies;Make 150 pies;Question 4. 4. Consider the following payoff table that represents the profits earned for each alternative (A, B, and C) under the states of nature S1, S2, and S3.;S1 S2 S3;A $60 $145 $120;B $75 $125 $110;C $95 $85 $130;Using the Laplace criterion, what would be the highest expected payoff? (Points: 3);$103.3;$108.3;$120;$125;$145;Question 5. 5. ABC Inc. must make a decision on its current capacity for next year. Estimated profits (in $000s) based on next year's demand are shown in the table below.;Next Year's Demand;Alternative Low High;Expand $100 $200;Subcontract $50 $120;Do nothing $40 $50;Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the maximax criterion? (Points: 3);Expand;Subcontract;Do nothing;Question 6. 6. Consider the following payoff table that represents the profits earned for each alternative (A, B, and C) under the states of nature S1, S2, and S3.;S1 S2 S3;A $60 $145 $120;B $75 $125 $110;C $95 $85 $130;Using the criterion of realism and an alpha value of 0.7, what would be the highest expected payoff? (Points: 3);$127;$119.5;$98.5;$116;$145;Question 7. 7. A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager.;Alternative Bid Accepted Bid Rejected;Buy 1 machine $10 $5;Buy 2 machines $30 $4;Buy 3 machines $40 $2;Refer to the information above. Assume that based on historical bids with the defense contractor, the plant manager believes that there is a 65% chance that the bid will be accepted and a 35% chance that the bid will be rejected.;What is the expected value under perfect information (EVPI)? (Points: 3);1.05;1.95;17.25;27.75;Question 8. 8. A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager.;Alternative Bid Accepted Bid Rejected;Buy 1 machine $10 $5;Buy 2 machines $30 $4;Buy 3 machines $40 $2;Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the maximin criterion? (Points: 3);Buy 1 machine;Buy 2 machines;Buy 3 machines;Question 9. 9. The expected monetary value (EMV) approach allows you to incorporate your own attitude toward risk. (Points: 3);True;False;Question 10. 10. Consider the following payoff table that represents the profits earned for each alternative (A, B, and C) under the states of nature S1, S2, and S3.;S1 S2 S3;A $60 $145 $120;B $75 $125 $110;C $95 $85 $130;Using the maximax criterion, what would be the highest expected payoff? (Points: 3);$145;$124;$120;$110;$100;Question 1. 1. In any regression model, there is an implicit assumption that a relationship exists between the variables. (Points: 3);True;False;Question 2. 2. A scatter diagram is useful to determine if a relationship exists between two variables. (Points: 3);True;False;Question 3. 3. The coefficients of each independent variable in a multiple regression model represent slopes. (Points: 3);True;False;Question 4. 4. One purpose of regression is to understand the relationship between variables. (Points: 3);True;False;Question 5. 5. Quiz2_Ques7_correlation_coefficient;Click here to view a pdf of this graphic.;The diagram above illustrates data with a;(Points: 3);negative correlation coefficient.;zero correlation coefficient.;positive correlation coefficient.;none of the above.;Question 6. 6. Demand for a particular type of battery fluctuates from one week to the next. A study of the last six weeks provides the following demands (in dozens): 4, 5, 3, 2, 8, 10 (last week). What is the the forecast demand for the next week using a two-week moving average. (Points: 3);4.5;6.67;9;10;Question 7. 7. Scatter diagrams can be useful in spotting trends or cycles in data over time. (Points: 3);True;False;Question 8. 8. A large school district is reevaluating its teachers' salaries. They have decided to use regression analysis to predict mean teachers' salaries at each elementary school. The researcher uses years of experience to predict salary. The resulting regression equation was;Y = 23,313.22 + 1,210.89X, where Y = salary, X = years of experience;Assume a teacher has five years of experience. What is the forecasted salary?;(Points: 3);$29,337.22;$29,337.67;$29,367.22;$29,367.67;Question 9. 9. Quiz1_Ques10;A prediction equation for starting salaries (in $1,000s) and SAT scores was performed using simple linear regression. In the regression printout shown above, what can be said about the level of significance for the overall model?;Click here to view the printout in Excel.;(Points: 3);SAT is not a good predictor for starting salary.;The significance level for the intercept indicates the model is not valid.;The significance level for SAT indicates the slope is equal to zero.;The significance level for SAT indicates the slope is not equal to zero.;None of the above can be said about the level of significance.;Question 10. 10. A scatter diagram is a graphical depiction of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. (Points: 3);True;False;1.Activity A has a standard cost of $500 and the standard time to complete Activity A is 5 weeks. The crash time for Activity A is 3 weeks and the crash cost is $600. What is the crash cost per week for Activity A? (Points: 3)$50;$100;$150;$200;$300;Question 2. 2. Considering the following Activity-On-Node (AON) project (activity completion times are in days), how long will it take to complete the project?;Activity-On-Node;Click here to view a Word version of the project. (Points: 3);13 days;14 days;15 days;16 days;Question 3. 3. Considering the following Activity-On-Node (AON) project (activity completion times are in days), what is the slack time associated with activity D?;Activity-On-Node;Click here to view a Word version of the project. (Points: 3);0 days;1 day;2 days;3 days;Question 4. 4. Consider the following Activity-On-Node (AON) PERT project. The three values that represent each activity's completion time (in days) correspond to an optimistic time, most likely time, and pessimistic time, respectively. What is the standard deviation associated with the completion time of activity B?;Activity-On-Node-2;Click here to view a Word version of the project. (Points: 3);0.0245 days;0.6667 days;0.3145 days;0.3333 days;Question 5. 5. Consider the following Activity-On-Node (AON) PERT project. The three values that represent each activity's completion time (in days) correspond to an optimistic time, most likely time, and pessimistic time, respectively. What is the expected completion time of activity A?;Activity-On-Node-2;Click here to view a Word version of the project. (Points: 3);2 days;3 days;4 days;5 days;Question 6. 6. Jamie is planning a trip overseas. A variety of activities must be completed before her departure. The following table describes the relationships between these activities;Immediate;ActivityPredecessors;A -;B A;C A;D B, C;E B, C;F D, E;G F;Jamie was also able to estimate the activity times as shown in the table below;Activity Time (Days);A 4;B 4;C 5;D 3;E 3;F 2;G 1;Considering the information above, what is the length of the project? (Points: 3);11 days;12 days;14 days;15 days;Question 7. 7. Consider the following set of activities that must be completed in order to prep a new home for painting;Immediate;ActivityPredecessors;A -;B -;C A, B;D C;E C;F D, E;G E;H F, G;Also assume that the painters were able to estimate the activity times as shown in the table below;Activity Time (Days);A 3;B 2;C 4;D 5;E 3;F 2;G 4;H 2;Considering the information above, what is the earliest finish time for activity F? (Points: 3);10 days;12 days;14 days;16 days;Question 8. 8. Consider the following set of activities that must be completed in order to prep a new home for painting;Immediate;ActivityPredecessors;A -;B -;C A, B;D C;E C;F D, E;G E;H F, G;Also assume that the painters were able to estimate the activity times as shown in the table below;Activity Time (Days);A 3;B 2;C 4;D 5;E 3;F 2;G 4;H 2;Considering the information above, what is the slack time for activities E and F respectively? (Points: 3);1 day, 1 day;1 day: 0 days;0 days, 1 day;0 days, 0 days;Question 9. 9. Francisco is planning a vacation to Germany. A variety of activities must be completed before his departure. The following table describes the relationships between these activities;Immediate;ActivityPredecessors;A -;B -;C -;D A, B;E C;F D, E;G E;H F, G;I F;J I, H;Francisco was also able to estimate the activity times as shown in the table below;Activity Time (Days);A 3;B 4;C 5;D 3;E 2;F 1;G 4;H 3;I 2;J 5;Considering the information above, what is the length of the project? (Points: 3);14 days;15 days;17 days;19 days;Question 10. 10. Francisco is planning a vacation to Germany. A variety of activities must be completed before his departure. The following table describes the relationships between these activities;Immediate;ActivityPredecessors;A -;B -;C -;D A, B;E C;F D, E;G E;H F, G;I F;J I, H;Francisco was also able to estimate the activity times as shown in the table below;Activity Time (Days);A 3;B 4;C 5;D 3;E 2;F 1;G 4;H 3;I 2;J 5;Considering the information above, what is the earliest finish time for activity E? (Points: 3);5 days;6 days;7 days;8 days;Question 1. 1. Given the following distances between destination nodes, what is the minimum distance that connects all the nodes? Click here to view a Word version of the table.;From;To;Distance;1;2;120;2;3;100;1;3;200;2;4;150;3;5;90;4;5;170;(Points: 3);290;310;620;460;None of the above;Question 2. 2. A point in the network that is at the beginning or end of a route is called a(n) __________. (Points: 3);arc;branch;line;node;source;Question 3. 3. The shortest-route technique would best be used to: (Points: 3);plan the routes for a vacation driving tour.;plan the route for a school bus.;determine the path for a truck making frequent runs from a factory to a warehouse.;All of the above;None of the above;Question 4. 4. A technique that allows a researcher to determine the greatest amount of material that can move through a network is called __________. (Points: 3);maximal-flow;maximal-spanning;shortest-route;maximal-tree;Question 5. 5. Assume that we are using a waiting line model to analyze the number of service technicians required to maintain machines in a factory. Our goal should be to: (Points: 3);maximize productivity of the technicians.;minimize the number of machines needing repair.;minimize the downtime for individual machines.;minimize the percent of idle time of the technicians.;minimize the total cost (cost of maintenance plus cost of downtime).;Question 6. 6. A vendor selling newspapers on a street corner is an example of a: (Points: 3);single-channel, multiphase system.;single-channel, single-phase system.;multichannel, multiphase system.;multichannel, single-phase system.;None of the above is correct.;Question 7. 7. Which of the following is not an assumption in common queuing mathematical models? (Points: 3);Arrivals come from an infinite, or very large, population.;Arrivals are Poisson distributed.;Arrivals are treated on a first-in, first-out basis and do not balk or renege.;Service rates follow the normal distribution.;The average service rate is faster than the average arrival rate.;Question 8. 8. The term queue "discipline" describes the: (Points: 3);degree to which members of the queue renege.;sequence in which members of the queue arrived.;degree to which members of the queue are orderly and quiet.;sequence in which members of the queue are serviced.;All of the above are correct.;Question 9. 9. An arrival in a queue that reneges is one who: (Points: 3);after joining the queue, becomes impatient and leaves.;refuses to join the queue because it is too long.;goes through the queue, but never returns.;jumps from one queue to another, trying to get through as quickly as possible.;None of the above is correct.;Question 10. 10. The customer who arrives at a bank, sees a long line, and leaves to return another time is __________. (Points: 3);balking;cropping;reneging;blithering;none of the above

Paper#23165 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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