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Assignment 1 - US Home Resales Data




Assignment 1: US Home Resales Data;The data corresponding to this assignment is given in file "Homeresales.txt", which;you can download from Blackboard (under Session 8). The data is in free-format and the only;variable is the monthly time-series (January 1989 through February 2003, 170 observations);of the Home Resales in US.;In performing any statistical analysis, please use SAS PROC REG and a 5% level of;significance.;(a) Look at a time-series plot of the data and using the plot discuss any seasonal;behavior that you can observe from the data. Obtain box plots for each month using SAS and;using the plot discuss at which months the home resales peak and drop.;Is there any evidence of changing variability in the resales based on the plots that you;have obtained? Please discuss your reasoning.;(b) Create the necessary monthly seasonal indicators and a time index to develop a;seasonal model using December as the reference month. That is, in addition to the seasonal;indicators, include also a first order (linear) time trend component in your model to capture;possible trend in the data.;Estimate the model and identify the statistically significant components of the model.;HINT: If there is any evidence of changing variability in the resales, then use a log;transformation of the data.;(c) Using the output discuss interpretation of the constant (intercept) term and the;coefficients for January and November.;(d) Based on your analysis, would you conclude that there exists seasonality in the;home resales? Would you conclude that there is an upward trend in the home resales?;(e) Test the hypothesis that June and July coefficients are equal to each other in your;model and briefly describe your findings. HINT: You can use TEST statement for this;purpose.;(f) Obtain a time series plot of actual versus predicted home resales based on your;model. What percent of the variation in the home resales is explained by your model?;PLEASE SUBMIT A HARDCOPY OF YOUR TYPED REPORT LESS THAN OR;EQUAL TO 4 PAGES INCLUDING THE RELEVANT SAS OUTPUTS).


Paper#26115 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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