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A mayoral election race is tightly contested.

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A mayoral election race is tightly contested. In a random sample of 1,100 likely voters, 572 said that they were planning to vote for the current mayor. Based on this sample, what is the initial hunch? Would one claim with 95% confidence that the mayor will win a majority of the votes? Explain.;I need a comment (verify solution) in 25-75 words from the response given below from the question listed above.;First, we calculate the sample proportion using formula (9-3) from our textbook. The sample proportion is 572/1100, or 0.52, or 52 percent. Then we can say with confidence that the current mayor has a good chance of being reelected for the next mandate and most likely he will be the winner.;So, in our case the sample proportion is.52, but the population proportion is unknown. That is, we do not know what proportion of voters in the population will vote for the current mayor. The sample value,.52, is the best estimate we have of the unknown population parameter. We estimate that 52 percent of the population will vote for the current mayor. We determine the 95% confidence interval by using formula (9-4) from our textbook. The z value corresponding to the 95% level of confidence is 1.96. Doing all the substitutions in the formula we get the result:.52?0.029;The endpoints of the interval are.491 and.549. The lower point is less than 50%, and we can say that there is a slightly chance that the current mayor won?t be elected for the next mandate, under one percent, and there is still good chance for him to be elected.;Reference;Lind, Marchal, Wathen. Basic Statistics for Business & Economics, 7th Ed. McGraw-Hill Irwin. 2011, page 270 - 271.

 

Paper#26482 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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