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DeVry BSOP 209 Week 1 Assignment 2014




Homework;Complete the following problems from Chapter 4 in your text. The Homework Problems Rubric is in Doc Sharing.;? Problem 4.2 a, b and c;? Problem 4.6 a, b and c;? Problem 4.9 a, b, c and d;Submit your assignment to the Dropbox located on the silver tab at the top of this page.;Problem 4.2;Year;1;2;3;4;5;6;7;8;9;10;11;Demand;7;9;5;9;13;8;12;13;9;11;7;a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?;b) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plot your forecast on the same graph as the original data.;c) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average with weights of.1,.3, and.6, using.6 for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.;Problem 4.6;The monthly sales for Telco Batteries, Inc., were as follows;Month;Sales;January;20;February;21;March;15;April;14;May;13;June;16;July;17;August;18;September;20;October;20;November;21;December;23;a) Plot the monthly sales data.;b) Forecast January sales using each of the following;i) Naive method.;ii) A 3-month moving average.;iii) A 6-month weighted average using.1,.1,.1,.2,.2, and.3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.;iv) Exponential smoothing using an? =.3 and a September forecast of 18.;v)A trend projection.;c) With the data given, which method would allow you to forecast next March?s sales?;Problem 4.9;Dell uses the CR5 chip in some of its laptop computers. The prices for the chip during the past 12 months were as follows;Month;Price Per Chip;Month;Price Per Chip;January;$1.80;July;1.80;February;1.67;August;1.83;March;1.70;September;1.70;April;1.85;October;1.65;May;1.90;November;1.70;June;1.87;December;1.75;a) Use a 2-month moving average on all the data and plot the averages and the prices.;b) Use a 3-month moving average and add the 3-month plot to the graph created in part (a).;c) Which is better (using the mean absolute deviation): the 2-month average or the 3-month average?;d) Compute the forecasts for each month using exponential smoothing, with an initial forecast for January of $1.80. Use? =.1, then? =.3, and finally? =.5. Using MAD, which? is the best?


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