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The following tabulations are actual sales of units for six months and a starting forecast in January

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Question;1. The following tabulations are actual;sales of units for six months and a starting forecast in January.;Calculate forecasts for the remaining five;months using simple exponential smoothing with? =.20.;Also, calculate MAD for the forecasts.;Month Demand F;January 100 80;February 94;March 106;April 80;May 68;June 94;2. Assume that your stock of sales;merchandise is maintained based on the forecast demand. If the;distributor?s sales personnel call on the;first day of each month, compute your forecast sales by each;of the three methods requested here.;Month Actual;June 140;July 180;August 170;a. Using a simple three-month moving;average, what is the forecast for September?;b. Using a weighted moving average;forecast for September (Use the following weights: 0.2, 0.3, and;0.5);c. Using a simple exponential smoothing and;assuming the forecast for June had been 130, forecast;sales for September with alpha = 0.30;3. Assume an initial starting forecast of 300;units, a trend of 8 units, an alpha of 0.30 and a delta of 0.40.;If actual demand turned out be 288;calculate the forecast for the next period.;4. Historical demand for a product is as;follow;Demand;Apr 60;May 55;Jun 75;Jul 60;Aug 80;Sep 75;Using Least Square Method (Simple;regression), forecast for October. 5. The following table shows the past 2;years of quarterly sales information for Rauniar Chips. Assume;that there are both trend and seasonal;factors and that seasonal cycle is one year. Use trend;projection with seasonal variation method;for forecast quarterly sales for the next year.;Quarter Sales Quarter Sales;I 160 V 215;II 195 VI 240;III 150 VII 205;IV 140 VIII 190

 

Paper#37735 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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