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PROJ MGMT Homework 5 - Forecasting Two Problems




Question;ForecastingProblem #5, Taylor text, p.728Please show manually calculation and Excel calculation. Send Excel and word files with solution.The chairperson of the department of management at State University wants to forecast thenumber of students who will enroll in production and operations management (POM) nextsemester, in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The chair has accumulated thefollowing enrollment data for the past eight semesters:Semester Students Enrolled inPOM1 4002 4503 3504 4205 5006 5757 4908 650a. Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9.b. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (a =.20) for the enrollment data.c. Compare the two forecasts by using MAD and indicate the more accurate of the two. Decision AnalysisProblem 2The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature.DecisionAlternativeState of Nature (S1, S2, S3)S1 S2 S3d1 250 100 25d2 100 100 75a. Construct a decision tree for this problem.b. If the decision maker known nothing about the probabilities of the three states of nature, what is the recommended decision using the 1)optimistic, 2) conservative, and 3) minimax regret approaches?Please show your solution with details.c. Suppose that the probabilities that S1, S2, and S3 will occur are 0.5, 0.4, and 0.1, respectively. What option should we choose using the expected value approach? Please show your solution with details.


Paper#45904 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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