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Question;Question 1.;?States of nature??..;a..;can describe uncontrollable;natural events such as floods or freezing temperatures.?..;b..;can be selected by the;decision maker.?..;c..;cannot be enumerated by the;decision maker?..;d..;All of the alternatives are;true.?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 2.;?A payoff??..;a..;exists;for each pair of decision alternatives and states of nature.?..;b..;exists;for each state of nature.?..;c..;is;always measured in cost.?..;d..;is;always measured in profit.?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 3.;?Making a good decision??..;a..;requires;probabilities for all states of nature.?..;b..;implies;that a desirable outcome will occur.?..;c..;All of;the alternatives are true.?..;d..;requires;a clear understanding of decision alternatives, states of nature, and;payoffs.?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 4.;?A decision tree??..;a..;arranges;decision alternatives and states of nature in their natural chronological;order.?..;b..;alternates;the decision alternatives and states of nature.?..;c..;presents;all states of nature first and follows them with all decision alternatives.?..;d..;presents;all decision alternatives first and follows them with all states of nature.?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 5.;?Which of the methods for decision making without probabilities best;protects the decision maker from undesirable results???..;a..;the;optimistic approach?..;b..;minimax;regret?..;c..;minimum regret?..;d..;?.;the;conservative approach??.;???;3 points;QUESTION 6.;?Decision tree probabilities refer to??..;a..;the;probability of the decision being made?..;b..;the;probability of finding the optimal strategy?..;c..;the;probability of an uncertain event occurring?..;d..;the;probability of overlooked choices?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 7.;?Seasonal components??..;a..;cannot;be predicted?..;b..;reflect;a shift in the series over time?..;c..;are;regular repeated patterns?..;d..;are;long runs of observations above or below the trend line?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 8.;?The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth??..;a..;the;irregular component?..;b..;long;range forecasts?..;c..;wide;seasonal variations?..;d..;significant;trend effects?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 9.;?Forecast errors??..;a..;are the;difference in successive vlues of a time series?..;b..;are the;differences between actual and forecast values?..;c..;should;be summed to judge the goodness of a forecasting model?..;d..;should;all be non-negative?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 10.;?To select the value for alpha for exponential smoothing??..;a..;All of;the alternatives are true?..;b..;use any;value between 0 and 1?..;c..;use a;small alpha when the series varies substantially?..;d..;use a;large alpha when the series has little random variability?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 11.;?The multiplicative model??..;a..;removes;trend before isolating the seasonal components?..;b..;uses;centered moving averages to smooth the trend fluctuations?..;c..;provides;a unique seasonal index for each observation of the time series?..;d..;deseasonalizes;a time series by dividing the values by the appropriate seasonal index?.;???;3 points;QUESTION 12.;?Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the;most recent time series value???..;a..;moving;average using the most recent 4 periods?..;b..;moving;average using the most recent 3 periods?..;c..;exponential;smoothing with alpha =.3?..;d..;Exponential;smoothing with alpha =.2?.;???


Paper#45932 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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