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Assignment 1: US Home Resales Data




Question;Assignment 1: US Home Resales Data;The data corresponding to this assignment is given in file;Homeresales.txt", which;you can download from Blackboard (under Session 8). The data;is in free-format and the only;variable is the monthly time-series (January 1989 through;February 2003, 170 observations);of the Home Resales in US.;In performing any statistical analysis, please use SAS PROC;REG and a 5% level of;significance.;(a) Look at a time-series plot of the data and using the;plot discuss any seasonal;behavior that you can observe from the data. Obtain box;plots for each month using SAS and;using the plot discuss at which months the home resales peak;and drop.;Is there any evidence of changing variability in the resales;based on the plots that you;have obtained? Please discuss your reasoning.;(b) Create the necessary monthly seasonal indicators and a;time index to develop a;seasonal model using December as the reference month. That;is, in addition to the seasonal;indicators, include also a first order (linear) time trend;component in your model to capture;possible trend in the data.;Estimate the model and identify the statistically;significant components of the model.;HINT: If there is any evidence of changing variability in;the resales, then use a log;transformation of the data.;(c) Using the output discuss interpretation of the constant;(intercept) term and the;coefficients for January and November.;(d) Based on your analysis, would you conclude that there;exists seasonality in the;home resales? Would you conclude that there is an upward;trend in the home resales?;(e) Test the hypothesis that June and July coefficients are;equal to each other in your;model and briefly describe your findings. HINT: You can use;TEST statement for this;purpose.;(f) Obtain a time series plot of actual versus predicted;home resales based on your;model. What percent of the variation in the home resales is;explained by your model?;PLEASE SUBMIT A HARDCOPY OF YOUR TYPED REPORT LESS THAN OR;EQUAL TO 4 PAGES INCLUDING THE RELEVANT SAS OUTPUTS).*************************************************************************213000207000270000268000295000325000301000340000302000295000263000245000218000201000270000279000308000324000304000340000262000268000236000210000176000182000243000287000328000331000314000315000266000268000239000237000198000207000276000309000316000343000326000319000293000310000281000301000213000204000272000308000328000379000368000383000338000330000325000339000239000225000320000356000385000404000359000392000330000313000295000299000217000207000289000286000352000397000368000427000353000353000326000311000239000238000318000376000418000405000417000433000345000362000325000321000250000243000313000364000413000425000432000448000387000406000339000362000265000276000385000427000460000508000507000490000421000431000386000414000291000293000411000455000476000564000532000533000434000420000395000401000283000310000420000430000489000542000488000530000439000432000407000382000294000304000437000450000504000558000529000559000416000438000402000404000340000340000435000493000537000538000536000540000451000476000428000453000347000345000..........


Paper#48505 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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