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GOLDEN GATE UNIVERSITY PMBA 305 Module #2

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Question;PMBA 305 - Spring '13;Quantitative Aspects of Decision Making;Module #2: Probability;Concepts and Distributions;Due;Name;ID#;Professional Master of Business;Administration Program;The Ageno School;of Business;GOLDEN GATE UNIVERSITY;[1];a) In how many ways can six banquet;speakers be seated along one side of the head table?;b);Gym;lockers are to be numbered from 1 to 99 using individual metal number plates to;be placed on each locker. How many 7's;are needed?;c);In;how many ways can a hostess place six name placecards around a round table?;d);In;how many ways can five different keys be put in a flat leather key case?;e);In;how many ways can five different keys be put on a key ring?;f);You;have one apple, one orange, one banana, and one grapefruit. How many different ways can you hand out all;the fruit to 5 people, if no person gets more than one kind of fruit?;g);If;I am to paint our house by myself, it will take 4 days to complete painting the;house. If my wife is to paint the house;alone, it will take 6 days to complete her work. How many days will it take to paint our house;if we decide to work together (without fight)?;h);Joey;and Ross along with 4 other best friends go to see a movie. They find a row of 6 seats, but Joey and Ross;don't want to sit next each other. How;many different seating arrangements are possible if Joey and Ross don't want to;sit next each other?;[2];A particular airline has 10:00 a.m. flights from San Francisco to New York;Atlanta, and Miami. The probabilities;that each flight is full are 0.60, 0.40, and 0.50 respectively, and each flight;is independent one another.;a);What;is the probability that all flights are full?;b);What;is the probability that only the New;York flight is full?;c);What;is the probability that exactly one flight is full?;[3]There;is a saying about initial public offerings (IPOs) of stock: ?If you want it;you can't get it, if you can get it, you don't want it.? This is because it is often difficult for the;general public to obtain shares initially when a ?hot? new company first goes;on sale. Instead, most of us have to;wait until it starts trading on the open market, often at a substantially;higher price. Suppose that, given that;you can obtain shares at the initial offering, the probability of the stock;performing well is 0.35. However, given;that you are unable to initially purchase shares, the probability of the stock;performing well is 0.80. Overall, assume;that you can obtain shares in about 15% of IPOs.;a);Find;the probability that both you are able to purchase the stock at the initial;offering and the stock performs well.;b);Find;the probability that the stock turned out not to perform well if you were;unable to obtain such shares.;c);How;much access to successful IPOs do you have, i.e. what is the probability that;you can buy successful IOPs?;d);What;percentage of the time, over the long run, will you be pleased with the;outcome?;[4];In a past presidential election, the actual voter turnout was 61%. In a survey, 1002 subjects were asked if they;voted in the presidential election.;a);Find;the mean and standard deviation for the number of actual voters in groups of;1002.;b);In;the survey of 1002 people, 701 said that they voted in the last presidential;election (based on data from ICR Research Group). Is this result consistent with the actual;voter turnout, or is this result unlikely to occur with an actual voter turnout;of 61%? Why or why not?;c);Based;on these results, does it appear that accurate voting results can be obtained;by asking voters how they acted?;[5] As reported by Runner's Worldmagazine, the times of the finishers in the New York;City 10-km run are normally distributed with a mean of 61 minutes and a;standard deviation of 9 minutes.;a);What;is the chance that finishers complete the run with the times between 50 and 70;minutes?;b);What;is the chance that finishers complete the run with the times more than 75;minutes?;c);How;fast do finishers have to complete the run among the top 5% finishers?;[6] In a clinical trial of Lipitor, a common;drug used to lower cholesterol, 863 patients were given a treatment of 10-mg;Atorvastatin tablets. Among them, 19;patients experienced flu symptoms and 844 patients did not (based on data from;Pfizer, Inc.).;a);Estimate;the probability that a patient taking the drug will experience flu symptoms.;b);Is;this unusual for a patient taking the drug to experience flu symptoms? Explain.;c);If;you know that the probability of flu symptoms for a person not receiving any;treatment is 0.019, what is the probability that there are 19 who experience;flu symptoms among 863 patients?;Explain.;d);Is;this unusual to find that among 863 patients, there are 19 who experience flu;symptoms in c)? Explain.

 

Paper#52617 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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