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Assignment 1 - US Home Resales Data




Question;Assignment 1: US Home Resales DataThe data corresponding to this assignment is given in file "Homeresales.txt", whichyou can download from Blackboard (under Session 8). The data is in free-format and the onlyvariable is the monthly time-series (January 1989 through February 2003, 170 observations)of the Home Resales in US.In performing any statistical analysis, please use SAS PROC REG and a 5% level ofsignificance.(a) Look at a time-series plot of the data and using the plot discuss any seasonalbehavior that you can observe from the data. Obtain box plots for each month using SAS andusing the plot discuss at which months the home resales peak and drop.Is there any evidence of changing variability in the resales based on the plots that youhave obtained? Please discuss your reasoning.(b) Create the necessary monthly seasonal indicators and a time index to develop aseasonal model using December as the reference month. That is, in addition to the seasonalindicators, include also a first order (linear) time trend component in your model to capturepossible trend in the data.Estimate the model and identify the statistically significant components of the model.HINT: If there is any evidence of changing variability in the resales, then use a logtransformation of the data.(c) Using the output discuss interpretation of the constant (intercept) term and thecoefficients for January and November.(d) Based on your analysis, would you conclude that there exists seasonality in thehome resales? Would you conclude that there is an upward trend in the home resales?(e) Test the hypothesis that June and July coefficients are equal to each other in yourmodel and briefly describe your findings. HINT: You can use TEST statement for thispurpose.(f) Obtain a time series plot of actual versus predicted home resales based on yourmodel. What percent of the variation in the home resales is explained by your model?PLEASE SUBMIT A HARDCOPY OF YOUR TYPED REPORT LESS THAN OR (EQUAL TO 4 PAGES INCLUDING THE RELEVANT SAS OUTPUTS).


Paper#53936 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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