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Appendix problems 1 - Price Index for the Los Angeles

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Question;Appendix problems 1;The following table reports the consumer Price Index for the;Los Angeles area on a monthly basis from January 1998 to December 2000 (bas;year = 1982-1984). Use Excel to forecast the index for all of 2000 using a;three- and six- month average. Which provides a better forecast for 2000 using;the data provided? NOTE: You need to calculate the moving average forecasts and;RMSEs for year 2000, not the whole data period.;Time CPI;3-month MAF A-F (A-F)^2 6-month MAF A-F (A-F)^2;Jan-98 161.0;Feb-98 161.1;Mar-98 161.4;Apr-98 161.8;May-98 162.3;Jun-98 162.2;Jul-98 162.1;Aug-98 162.6;Sep-98 162.6;Oct-98 163.2;Nov-98 163.4;Dec-98 163.5;Jan-99 164.2;Feb-99 164.6;Mar-99 165.0;Apr-99 166.6;May-99 166.2;Jun-99 165.4;Jul-99 165.8;Aug-99 166.3;Sep-99 167.2;Oct-99 167.2;Nov-99 167.1;Dec-99 167.3;Jan-00 167.9 167.2 0.7 0.49;Feb-00 169.3 167.4 1.9 3.48;Mar-00 170.7 168.2 2.5 6.42;Apr-00 170.6 169.3 1.3 1.69;May-00 171.1 170.2 0.9 0.81;Jun-00 171.0 170.8 0.2 0.04;Jul-00 171.7 170.9 0.8 0.64;Aug-00 172.2 171.3 0.9;0.87;Sep-00 173.3 171.6 1.7 2.78;Oct-00 173.8 172.4 1.4 1.96;Nov-00 173.5 173.1 0.4 0.16;Dec-00 173.5 173.5 0.0 0.00;MSE 1.61;RMSE 1.27

 

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