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Appendix Problem 3 -Chapter 6

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Question;Appendix Problem 3;Ch 6;Forecast the data for 2000 again in problem 1 with the;exponential smoothing with w = 0.3 and w = 0.7. NOTE Compare RMSEs for moving;average and exponential forecasts to answer ?Is this a;better forecast than the moving average? (see) also p. 234) Use 166.63, the;mean of all 36 months, as the initial forecast for Jan. 1998 for both;exponential smoothing forecasts.;Time CPI forecast (w=0.3) (A-F)^2 forecast (w=0.7) (A-F)^2;Jan-98 161.0 166.63;166.63;Feb-98 161.1 164.94;Mar-98 161.4 163.79;Apr-98 161.8 163.07;May-98 162.3 162.69;Jun-98 162.2 162.57;Jul-98 162.1 162.46;Aug-98 162.6 162.35;Sep-98 162.6 162.43;Oct-98 163.2 162.48;Nov-98 163.4 162.70;Dec-98 163.5 162.91;Jan-99 164.2 163.08;Feb-99 164.6 163.42;Mar-99 165.0 163.77;Apr-99 166.6 164.14;May-99 166.2 164.88;Jun-99 165.4 165.28;Jul-99 165.8 165.31;Aug-99 166.3 165.46;Sep-99 167.2 165.71;Oct-99 167.2 166.16;Nov-99 167.1 166.47;Dec-99 167.3 166.66;Jan-00 167.9 166.85 1.10;Feb-00 169.3 167.17 4.55;Mar-00 170.7 167.81 8.37;Apr-00 170.6 168.67 3.71;May-00 171.1 169.25 3.41;Jun-00 171.0 169.81 1.42;Jul-00 171.7 170.16 2.36;Aug-00 172.2 170.63 2.48;Sep-00 173.3 171.10 4.85;Oct-00 173.8 171.76 4.17;Nov-00 173.5 172.37 1.28;Dec-00 173.5 172.71 0.62;MSE 3.19;RMSE 1.79

 

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