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##### ECO - Bubba Wildcat has the opportunity to buy a tract of land under

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Question;Bubba Wildcat has the opportunity to buy a tract of land under which he believes there is oil with 0.40 probability and natural gas with 0.60 probability. After buying the land he can choose to make a test drill for \$10,000 to gather more information. A "positive" result indicates there is oil. The false positive rate is 20%, and the false negative rate is 10%.;The expected cost of full-scale drilling is \$100,000 regardless of whether there is oil or gas or whether he made a test drill or not. If oil is discovered, Bubba will receive an expected income of \$150,000 above the cost of the land. If natural gas is discovered, then Bubba will receive anexpected income of \$50,000 above the cost of the land. Assume Bubba is risk neutral. Draw a decision tree, and solve for an optimal decision plan for Bubba.

Paper#57680 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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