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Question;Deterministic techniques assume that;no uncertainty exists in model parameters.;True;False;Question 2;A continuous random variable may;assume only integer values within a given interval.;True;False;Question 3;An inspector correctly;identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the;probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.;True;False;Question 4;A decision tree is a diagram;consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.;True;False;Question 5;A table of random numbers must be;normally distributed and efficiently generated.;True;False;Question 6;Starting conditions have no;impact on the validity of a simulation model.;True;False;Question 7;The Delphi develops a;consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.;True;False;Question 8;Qualitative methods are the least;common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.;True;False;Question 9;__________ is a measure of;dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.;Standard deviation;Range;The z-score (the standard score);All of the above;Question 10;Assume that it takes a college;student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking;lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard;deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college;students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?;Question 11;The __________ is the maximum amount;a decision maker would pay for additional information.;expected opportunity loss;expected value;expected value of perfect;information;none of the above;Question 12;In the Monte Carlo process;values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability;distribution.;Answer;sampling from;running;integrating;implementing;Question 13;Pseudorandom numbers exhibit;__________ in order to be considered truly random.;Answer;a limited number of possible;outcomes;a uniform distribution;a detectable pattern;a detectable run of certain;numbers;Question 14;Two hundred simulation runs were;completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table;below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was;1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.;What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?;Question 15;A seed value is a(n);Answer;steady state solution of a;simulation experiment;number used to start a stream of;random numbers;first run of a simulation model;analytic solution of a simulation;experiment;Question 16;Consider the following demand;and forecast.;If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?;Question 17;rob;14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units;EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of;limes per acre is distributed as follows;The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.;What is the expected yield of the crop?;425;442;440;475;Question 18;of determination is the percentage;of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the;variable.;Answer;dependent, dependent;independent, dependent;dependent, independent;independent, independent;Question 19;Which of the following possible;values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly;to sudden changes in forecast errors?;Answer;.01;.10;.50;.90;Question 20;__________ is absolute error;as a percentage of demand.;Answer;Cumulative error;MAD;MAPD;Average error;Question 21;Consider the following graph of;sales.;Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?;Trend only;Trend plus seasonal;Seasonal only;None of the above;Question 22;__________ is a category of;statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.;Answer;Qualitative methods;Regression;Time series;Quantitative methods;Question 23;__________ is a linear;regression model relating demand to time.;Linear trend;Linear regression;Forecast demand;Linear equation;Question 24;In exponential smoothing, the;closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent;demand.;-1;1;-1 or 1;Question 25;An automotive center keeps tracks of;customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for;complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below.;The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is;the probability of receiving xi complaints.;What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer;to two places after the decimal.;Question 26;A fair die is rolled 8 times. What;is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4;times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.;Question 27;A life insurance company wants to;estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the;lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a;mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the;plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer;to four places after the decimal.;Question 28;A loaf of bread is normally;distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is;the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four;places after the decimal.;Question 29;The local operations manager for the;IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that;net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.;If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and;50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your;answer to the nearest dollar.;Question 30;The local operations manager for the;IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that;net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.;If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?;Question 31;Given the following random number;ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93;determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.;Question 32;Daily highs in Sacramento for;the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90;and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.;Question 33;Consider the following annual;sales data for 2001-2008.;Calculate the correlation coefficient. Use four significant digits after the;decimal.;Question 34;Daily highs in Sacramento for the;past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and;92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with;weights of.6,.3 and.1, where the highest weights are applied to the most;recent data.;Question 35;Given the following data, compute;the MAD for the forecast.;Question 36;Given the following data on the;number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period;time frame: Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places;after the decimal.;Question 37;The following data summarizes the;historical demand for a product.;Use exponential smoothing with? =;.2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed;forecast for August.;Question 38;The following sales data are;available for 2003-2008.;Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are;W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.;Question 39;Robert wants to know if there is a;relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.;What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the;decimal.;Question 40;The following sales data are;available for 2003-2008;Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits;after the decimal


Paper#60198 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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