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##### MAT540 MIDTERM EXAM

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Question;? Question 1;5 out of 5 points;Deterministic techniques assume;that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.;? Question 2;5 out of 5 points;An inspector correctly identifies;defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability;that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.;? Question 3;5 out of 5 points;A joint probability is the;probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur;simultaneously.;? Question 4;5 out of 5 points;A decision tree is a diagram;consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.;? Question 5;0 out of 5 points;Simulation results will always;equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.;? Question 6;5 out of 5 points;A table of random numbers must be;normally distributed and efficiently generated.;? Question 7;5 out of 5 points;The Delphi develops a consensus;forecast about what will occur in the future.;? Question 8;5 out of 5 points;Data cannot exhibit both trend;and cyclical patterns.;? Question 9;5 out of 5 points;Assume that it takes a college;student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking;lot. Assume also that this time is;normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded;by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot;in the main parking lot?;? Question 10;5 out of 5 points;In Bayesian analysis, additional;information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an;event.;? Question 11;5 out of 5 points;The __________ is the expected;value of the regret for each decision.;? Question 12;5 out of 5 points;Consider the following frequency;of demand;If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value;for demand would be;? Question 13;5 out of 5 points;Pseudorandom numbers exhibit;__________ in order to be considered truly random.;? Question 14;5 out of 5 points;Developing the cumulative;probability distribution helps to determine;? Question 15;5 out of 5 points;A seed value is a(n);? Question 16;5 out of 5 points;__________ is a measure of the;strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.;? Question 17;5 out of 5 points;__________ is a linear regression;model relating demand to time.;? Question 18;5 out of 5 points;Coefficient of determination is;the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from;the __________ variable.;? Question 19;5 out of 5 points;__________ is the difference;between the forecast and actual demand.;? Question 20;5 out of 5 points;Consider the following graph of;sales.;Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the;data?;? Question 21;5 out of 5 points;Given the following data on the;number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period;time frame;If the forecast for;period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with? =.40 to compute a;forecast for period 7.;? Question 22;5 out of 5 points;rob;14, and 15)estion;worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S.;Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is;distributed as follows;Yield, bushels per acre Probability;350.10;400.18;450.50;500.22;The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.;What is the expected yield of the crop?;? Question 23;5 out of 5 points;__________ methods are the most;common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.;? Question 24;5 out of 5 points;__________ is a category of;statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.;? Question 25;5 out of 5 points;A life insurance company wants to;estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the;lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a;mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the;plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the;decimal.;? Question 26;5 out of 5 points;A loaf of bread is normally;distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is;the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four;places after the decimal.;? Question 27;5 out of 5 points;The drying rate in an industrial;process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following;distribution.;Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.;? Question 28;5 out of 5 points;An online sweepstakes has the;following payoffs and probabilities.;Each person is limited to one entry.;The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.;? Question 29;5 out of 5 points;An investor is considering 4;different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.;The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions;represented in the payoff table below.;Economic Condition;Poor Average Good Excellent;Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4);A 50 75 20 30;B 80 15 40 50;C -100 300 -50 10;D 25 25 25 25;If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5;0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?;? Question 30;5 out of 5 points;The local operations manager for;the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates;that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax;code.;If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?;? Question 31;5 out of 5 points;Consider the following;distribution and random numbers;If a simulation begins with the first random number, what;would the first simulation value would be __________.;? Question 32;5 out of 5 points;This is the data from the last 4;weeks;Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the;increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.;? Question 33;5 out of 5 points;Given the following data on the;number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period;time frame;Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two;places after the decimal.;? Question 34;5 out of 5 points;Given the following data, compute;the MAD for the forecast.;Year Demand Forecast;2001 16 18;2002 20 19;2003 18 24;? Question 35;0 out of 5 points;Consider the following annual;sales data for 2001-2008.;Year Sales;2001 2;2002 4;2003 10;2004 8;2005 14;2006 18;2007 17;2008 20;Calculate the correlation coefficient. Use four significant;digits after the decimal.;? Question 36;5 out of 5 points;Robert wants to know if there is;a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.;What is the coefficient of determination? Use two;significant places after the decimal.;.96;? Question 37;0 out of 5 points;The following data summarizes the;historical demand for a product;Month Actual Demand;March 20;April 25;May 40;June 35;July 30;August 45;If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38;and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not;in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three;significant digits after the decimal.;? Question 38;5 out of 5 points;The following sales data are;available for 2003-2008.;Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for;2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.;? Question 39;0 out of 5 points;Daily highs in Sacramento for the;past week (from least to most recent) were;95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.;Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.;? Question 40;5 out of 5 points;The following sales data are;available for 2003-2008;Year Sales Forecast;2003 7 9;2004 12 10;2005 14 15;2006 20 22;2007 16 18;2008 25 21;Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three;significant digits after the decimal.

Paper#60364 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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