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##### Strayer MAT540 midterm exam (fall 2014)

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solution

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Question;Question 1;Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model;parameters.;Answer;True;False;Question 2;A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are;mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.;Answer;True;False;Question 3;A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a;given interval.;Answer;True;False;Question 4;A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision;nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.;Answer;True;False;Question 5;Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a;simulation model.;Answer;True;False;Question 6;Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be;represented by continuous random variables.;Answer;True;False;Question 7;Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting;method for the long-term strategic planning process.;Answer;True;False;Question 8;Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.;Answer;True;False;Question 9;__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values;about the expected value.;Answer;Standard deviation;Range;The z-score;(the standard score);All of the;above;Question 10;A company markets educational software products, and is ready to;place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this;particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the;probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability;that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?;Answer;0.80;0.032;0.24;0.096;Question 11;The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each;decision.;Answer;expected value;expected opportunity loss;expected value;of perfect information;none of the;above;Question 12;A seed value is a(n);Answer;steady state;solution of a simulation experiment;number used to start a stream of random numbers;first run of a;simulation model;analytic;solution of a simulation experiment;Question 13;Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be;considered truly random.;Answer;a limited;number of possible outcomes;a uniform distribution;a detectable;pattern;a detectable;run of certain numbers;Question 14;Consider the following frequency of demand;If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be;Answer;1;2;3;4;Question 15;Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability;of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of;breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of;0.20.;No. of breakdowns per week;Probability;Cumulative probability;0;.10;.10;1;.25;.35;2;.36;.71;3;.22;.93;4;.07;1.00;What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?;Answer;.10;.25;.35;.71;Question 16;__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses;historical data to predict future behavior.;Answer;Qualitative;methods;Regression;Time series;Quantitative;methods;Question 17;Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause;exponential smoothing to respond the mostslowlyto sudden changes in forecast errors?;Answer;.01;.10;.50;.90;Question 18;__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual;demand.;Answer;Forecast;mistake;Forecast error;MAD;Forecast;accuracy;Question 19;Consider the following demand and forecast.;Period;Demand;Forecast;1;7;10;2;12;15;3;18;20;4;22;If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?;Answer;21;22;23;none of the;above;Question 20;rob;14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units;EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of;limes per acre is distributed as follows;Yield, bushels per acre;Probability;350;.10;400;.18;450;.50;500;.22;The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.;What is the expected yield of the crop?;Answer;425;442;440;475;Question 21;Consider the following graph of sales.;Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?;Answer;Trend only;Trend plus;seasonal;Cyclical only;None of the above;Question 22;__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship;between independent and dependent variables.;Answer;Correlation;Linear;regression;Coefficient of;determination;Regression;Question 23;Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the;variation in the __________ variable that results from the;variable.;Answer;dependent;dependent;independent;dependent;dependent, independent;independent;independent;Question 24;Consider the following graph of sales.;Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?;Answer;Trend only;Trend plus;seasonal;Seasonal only;None of the;above;Question 25;A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and;a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger;than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.;Answer;Question 26;An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints;received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be;represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable;xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of;receiving xi complaints.;xi;0;1;2;3;4;5;6;p(xi);.10;.15;.18;.20;.20;.10;.07;What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer;to two places after the decimal.;Answer;Question 27;A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that;the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is;approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard;deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive;payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the;decimal.;Question 28;A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number;(2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four;places after the decimal.;Answer;Question 29;The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or;3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well;taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given;in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).;If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?;Question;30;An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.;The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions;represented in the payoff table below.;Economic Condition;Poor;Average Good;ExcellentInvestment;(S1);(S2);(S3) (S4);A;50;75;20;30;B;80;15;40;50;C;-100;300;-50;10;D;25;25;25;25;If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05;respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?;Question 31;Consider;the following probability distribution;Demand;Probability;0;0.15;1;0.30;2;0.25;3;0.15;4;0.15;Partition 100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability;of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going;to be selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?;Question 32;Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local;ice cream store for a 6-period time frame;Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the;decimal.;Question;33;The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.;Month;Actual Demand;March;20;April;25;May;40;June;35;July;30;August;45;Use exponential smoothing with? =.2 and the smoothed forecast for;July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.;Question;34;Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent);were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for;today using a weighted moving average, with weights of.6,.3 and.1, where;the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.;Question 35;Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local;ice cream store for a 6-period time frame;Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the;decimal.;Question 36;The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.;Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights;are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.;Question;37;Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.;Year;Demand Forecast;2001;16;18;2002;20;19;2003;18;24;Question;38;The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product;Month;Actual Demand;March;20;April;25;May;40;June;35;July;30;August;45;If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42;respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in;percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three;significant digits after the decimal.;Question 39;Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling;and winnings.;What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your;answer with 2 places after the decimal point.;Question 40;This is the data from the last 4 weeks;Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for;when the number of ads is 10.

Paper#60442 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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