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##### MAT540 MIDTERM [ SUMMER 2104 ]

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Question;Question 1;Deterministic techniques assume;that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.;Answer;Question 2;5 out of 5 points;A joint probability is the;probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur;simultaneously.;Question 3;5 out of 5 points;A continuous random variable may;assume only integer values within a given interval.;Question 4;5 out of 5 points;A decision tree is a diagram;consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.;Question 5;5 out of 5 points;Starting conditions have no;impact on the validity of a simulation model.;Question 6;5 out of 5 points;Excel can only be used to;simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.;Question 7;5 out of 5 points;The Delphi develops a consensus;forecast about what will occur in the future.;Question 8;5 out of 5 points;Data cannot exhibit both trend;and cyclical patterns.;Question 9;5 out of 5 points;A company markets educational;software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past;experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of;success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent;for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is;successful?;Question 10;5 out of 5 points;is a measure of;dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.;Answer;Question 11;5 out of 5 points;The __________ is the maximum;amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.;Question 12;5 out of 5 points;Two hundred simulation runs were;completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table;below. The average number of breakdowns;from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.;No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability;0.10.10;1.25.35;2.36.71;3.22.93;4.07 1.00;What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?;Question 13;5 out of 5 points;In the Monte Carlo process;values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability;distribution.;Question 14;5 out of 5 points;Developing the cumulative;probability distribution helps to determine;Question 15;5 out of 5 points;A seed value is a(n);Question 16;5 out of 5 points;is a linear regression;model relating demand to time.;Question 17;5 out of 5 points;methods are the most;common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.;Question 18;5 out of 5 points;is absolute error as a;percentage of demand.;Question 19;5 out of 5 points;Coefficient of determination is;the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from;the __________ variable.;Question 20;0 out of 5 points;Consider the following demand and;forecast.;Period Demand Forecast;1 7 10;2 12 15;3 18 20;4 22;If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?;Question 21;0 out of 5 points;Consider the following graph of;sales.;Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the;data?;Question 22;5 out of 5 points;Which of the following possible;values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to;sudden changes in forecast errors?;Question 23;5 out of 5 points;is the difference;between the forecast and actual demand.;Question 24;5 out of 5 points;is a category of;statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.;Question 25;5 out of 5 points;An automotive center keeps tracks;of customer complaints received each week.;The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a;table or a graph, both shown below. The;random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the;probability of receiving xi complaints.;xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6;p(xi).10.15.18.20.20.10.07;What is the average number of complaints received per week?;Round your answer to two places after the decimal.;Question 26;5 out of 5 points;A loaf of bread is normally;distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is;the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four;places after the decimal.;Question 27;5 out of 5 points;An online sweepstakes has the;following payoffs and probabilities.;Each person is limited to one entry.;The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.;Question 28;5 out of 5 points;A life insurance company wants to;estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the;lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a;mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the;plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the;decimal.;Exact Match.0400;Exact Match.0402;Question 29;0 out of 5 points;The local operations manager for;the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates;that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax;code. The following payoff table is;given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).;If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance;are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect;information? Note: Please express your answer as a whole number;in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).;Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.;Evaluation Method Correct;Answer Case Sensitivity;Exact Match 26;Question 30;5 out of 5 points;Consider the following decision;tree.;What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to;the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign ?$? in your answer.;Question 31;0 out of 5 points;A normal distribution has a mean;of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value;from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?;Question 32;5 out of 5 points;Given the following data on the;number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period;time frame;Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two;places after the decimal.;Question 33;5 out of 5 points;The following data summarizes the;historical demand for a product.;Month Actual Demand;March 20;April 25;May 40;June 35;July 30;August 45;Use exponential smoothing with? =.2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32.;Determine the smoothed forecast for August.;Question 34;5 out of 5 points;Daily highs in Sacramento for the;past week (from least to most recent) were;95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.;Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.;Question 35;0 out of 5 points;Daily highs in Sacramento for the;past week (from least to most recent) were;95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.;Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with;weights of.6,.3 and.1, where the highest weights are applied to the most;recent data.;Question 36;5 out of 5 points;Given the following data on the;number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period;time frame;Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two;places after the decimal.;Question 37;5 out of 5 points;The following data summarizes the;historical demand for a product;Month Actual Demand;March 20;April 25;May 40;June 35;July 30;August 45;If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38;and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not;in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three;significant digits after the decimal.;Question 38;5 out of 5 points;Consider the following annual;sales data for 2001-2008.;Year Sales;2001 2;2002 4;2003 10;2004 8;2005 14;2006 18;2007 17;2008 20;Calculate the correlation coefficient. Use four significant;digits after the decimal.;Exact Match r=.9654;Question 39;5 out of 5 points;This is the data from the last 4;weeks;Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the;increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.;Question 40;0 out of 5 points;Robert wants to know if there is;a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.;What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after;the decimal point.

Paper#60602 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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