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##### Strayer MAT540 midterm spring 2014

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solution

**Question**

Question;Question 1;Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model;parameters.;Answer;True;False;Question 2;A joint probability is the probability that two or more;events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.;Answer;True;False;Question 3;An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of;the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2;incorrect inspections is 0.736.;Answer;True;False;Question 4;A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision;nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.;Answer;True;False;Question 5;Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a;simulation model.;Answer;True;False;Question 6;A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and;efficiently generated.;Answer;True;False;Question 7;Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting;method for the long-term strategic planning process.;Answer;True;False;5 points;Question 8;The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will;occur in the future.;Answer;True;False;Question 9;A company markets educational software products, and is;ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that;for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume;that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the;probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?;Answer;0.80;0.032;0.24;0.096;Question 10;In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to;alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.;Answer;marginal;conditional;binomial;revised;Question 11;The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would;pay for additional information.;Answer;expected opportunity loss;expected value;expected;value of perfect information;none of the above;Question 12;Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be;considered truly random.;Answer;a limited number of possible outcomes;a;uniform distribution;a detectable pattern;a detectable run of certain numbers;Question 13;A seed value is a(n);Answer;steady state solution of a simulation experiment;number;used to start a stream of random numbers;first run of a simulation model;analytic solution of a simulation experiment;Question 14;Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a;machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns;from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.;No. of breakdowns per week;Probability;Cumulative probability;0;.10;.10;1;.25;.35;2;.36;.71;3;.22;.93;4;.07;1.00;What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?;Answer;.10;.25;.35;.71;Question 15;In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are;generated by __________ a probability distribution.;Answer;sampling;from;running;integrating;implementing;Question 16;Consider the following graph of sales.;Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?;Answer;Trend only;Trend plus seasonal;Cyclical only;None of;the above;Question 17;Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a;local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame;If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing;with? =.40 to compute a forecast for period 7.;Answer;273;277;267.8;286.2;Question 18;__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.;Answer;Cumulative error;MAD;MAPD;Average error;Question 19;The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of;limes per acre is distributed as follows;Yield, bushels per acre;Probability;350;.10;400;.18;450;.50;500;.22;The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.;What is the expected yield of the crop?;Answer;425;442;440;475;Question 20;__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses;historical data to predict future behavior.;Answer;Qualitative methods;Regression;Time;series;Quantitative methods;Question 21;__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to;time.;Answer;Linear;trend;Linear regression;Forecast demand;Linear equation;Question 22;Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the;variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.;Answer;dependent, dependent;independent, dependent;dependent;independent;independent, independent;Question 23;__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship;between independent and dependent variables.;Answer;Correlation;Linear regression;Coefficient of determination;Regression;Question 24;__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting;method for the long-term strategic planning process.;Answer;Regression;Qualitative;Time series;all of the above;Question 25;The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors;and varies according to the following distribution.;Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.;Answer;Question 26;An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.;Each person is limited to one entry.;The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is;Question 27;An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each;week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a;table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents;the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving;xi complaints.;xi;0;1;2;3;4;5;6;p(xi);.10;.15;.18;.20;.20;.10;.07;What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer;to two places after the decimal.;Answer;Question 28;A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume;that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is;approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard;deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive;payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the;decimal.;Answer;Question 29;An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or;D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic;conditions, represented in the payoff table below.;Economic Condition;Poor;Average Good;ExcellentInvestment (S1);(S2);(S3) (S4);A;50;75 20;30;B;80;15;40 50;C;-100;300;-50;10;D;25;25;25;25;If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05;respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?;Answer;Question 30;The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1;2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how;well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is;given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).;If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?;Answer;Question 31;Consider;the following probability distribution;Demand;Probability;0;0.15;1;0.30;2;0.25;3;0.15;4;0.15;Partition;100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value;starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be selected. What is;the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?;Solution;Question 32;Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on;gambling and winnings.;What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer;with 2 places after the decimal point.;Answer;Question 33;Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent);were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today;using a weighted moving average, with weights of.6,.3 and.1, where the;highest weights are applied to the most recent data.;Answer;Question 34;Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a;local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame;Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the;decimal.;Answer;Question 35;The following sales data are available for 2003-2008;Year;Sales;Forecast;2003;7;9;2004;12;10;2005;14;15;2006;20;22;2007;16;18;2008;25;21;Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits;after the decimal;Question 36;The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.;Month;Actual Demand;March;20;April;25;May;40;June;35;July;30;August;45;Use exponential smoothing with? =.2 and the smoothed forecast for July;is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.;Answer;Question 37;The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product;Month;Actual Demand;March;20;April;25;May;40;June;35;July;30;August;45;If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42;respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in;percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant;digits after the decimal.;Answer;Question 38;Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.;Year;Sales;2001;2;2002;4;2003;10;2004;8;2005;14;2006;18;2007;17;2008;20;Calculate the correlation coefficient. Use four significant digits after the;decimal.;Question 39;This is the data from the last 4 weeks;Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for;when the number of ads is 10.;Answer;Question 40;Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a;local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame;Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the;decimal.;Answer

Paper#60708 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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