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Strayer MAT540 week 4 homework




Question;MAT540;Week 4 Homework;Chapter 15;2. The;manager of the Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of the;demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet;from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpet from one of Carpet City?s;many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the;past 8 months;Month;Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.);1;8;2;12;3;7;4;9;5;15;6;11;7;10;8;12;a.;Compute a 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.;b.;Compute a weighted 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.;Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33, and 0.12 to the months in sequence, starting with;the most recent month.;c. Compare the two forecasts by;using MAD. Which forecast appears to be;more accurate?;6. The;manager of the Petroco Service Station wants to forecast the demand for;unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be;ordered from the distributor. The owner has accumulated the following data on;demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the past 10 months;Month;Gasoline Demanded (gal.);October;800;November;725;December;630;January;500;February;645;March;690;April;730;May;810;June;1,200;July;980;a.;Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast, using an? value of 0.30.;b. Compute the MAPD.;9. Emily;Andrews has invested in a science and technology mutual fund. Now she is considering liquidating and;investing in another fund. She would;like to forecast the price of the science and technology fund for the next;month before making a decision. She has;collected the following data on the average price of the fund during the past;20 months;Month;Fund Price;1;$63 1/4;2;60 1/8;3;61 3/4;4;64 1/4;5;59 3/8;6;57 7/8;7;62 1/4;8;65 1/8;9;68 1/4;10;65 1/2;11;68 1/8;12;63 1/4;13;64 3/8;14;68 5/8;15;70 1/8;16;72 3/4;17;74 1/8;18;71 3/4;19;75 1/2;20;76 3/4;a.;Using a 3-month average, forecast the fund price for month 21.;b.;Using a 3-month weighted average with the most recent month weighted 0.60, the;next most recent month weighted 0.30, and the third month weighted 0.10, forecast;the fund price for month 21.;c.;Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast, using?=0.40, and forecast the;fund price for month 21.;d. Compare the forecasts in;(a), (b), and (c), using MAD, and indicate the most accurate.;26. Carpet;City wants to develop a means to forecast its carpet sales. The store manager;believes that the store?s sales are directly related to the number of new;housing starts in town. The manager has gathered data from county records on;monthly house construction permits and from store records on monthly sales. These;data are as follows;Monthly Carpet Sales (1,000 yd.);Monthly Construction Permits;5;21;10;35;4;10;3;12;8;16;2;9;12;41;11;15;9;18;14;26;a.;Develop a linear regression model for these data and forecast carpet sales;if 30 construction permits for new homes are filed.;b. Determine the strength of;the causal relationship between monthly sales and new home construction by;using correlation.;27. The;manager of Gilley?s Ice Cream Parlor needs an accurate forecast of the demand;for ice cream. The store orders ice cream from a distributor a week ahead, if;the store orders too little, it loses business, and if it orders too much, the;extra must be thrown away. The manager believes that a major determinant of ice;cream sales is temperature (i.e., the hotter the weather, the more ice cream;people buy). Using an almanac, the manager has determined the average daytime;temperature for 10 weeks, selected at random, and from store records he has;determined the ice cream consumption for the same 10 weeks. These data are;summarized as follows;Week;Average Temperature;(degrees);Ice Cream Sold;(gal.);1;73;110;2;65;95;3;81;135;4;90;160;5;75;97;6;77;105;7;82;120;8;93;175;9;86;140;10;79;121;a.;Develop a linear regression model for these data and forecast the ice cream;consumption if the average weekly daytime temperature is expected to be 85;degrees.;b. Determine the strength of;the linear relationship between temperature and ice cream consumption by using;correlation.;28. Compute the coefficient of determination for the data in Problem 27 and;explain its meaning.


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