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MAT540 week 4 homework

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Question;MAT540;Week 4;Homework;Chapter 15;2. The manager of the Carpet City outlet needs;to make an accurate forecast of the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest;seller). If the manager does not order;enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpet from one of;Carpet City?s many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand;data for the past 8 months;Month;Demand for Soft;Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.);1;8;2;12;3;7;4;9;5;15;6;11;7;10;8;12;a. Compute a 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.;b. Compute a weighted 3-month moving average forecast for months 4;through 9. Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33, and 0.12 to the months in sequence, starting;with the most recent month.;c. Compare the two forecasts by using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate?;6. The manager of the Petroco Service Station;wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the;proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor. The owner has;accumulated the following data on demand for unleaded gasoline from sales;during the past 10 months;Month;Gasoline Demanded;(gal.);October;800;November;725;December;630;January;500;February;645;March;690;April;730;May;810;June;1,200;July;980;a. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast, using an? value of 0.30.;b. Compute the MAPD.;9. Emily Andrews has invested in a science and;technology mutual fund. Now she is;considering liquidating and investing in another fund. She would like to forecast the price of the;science and technology fund for the next month before making a decision. She has collected the following data on the;average price of the fund during the past 20 months;Month;Fund Price;1;$63 1/4;2;60 1/8;3;61 3/4;4;64 1/4;5;59 3/8;6;57 7/8;7;62 1/4;8;65 1/8;9;68 1/4;10;65 1/2;11;68 1/8;12;63 1/4;13;64 3/8;14;68 5/8;15;70 1/8;16;72 3/4;17;74 1/8;18;71 3/4;19;75 1/2;20;76 3/4;a. Using a 3-month average, forecast the fund price for month 21.;b. Using a 3-month weighted average with the most recent month weighted;0.60, the next most recent month weighted 0.30, and the third month weighted;0.10, forecast the fund price for month 21.;c. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast, using?=0.40, and;forecast the fund price for month 21.;d. Compare the forecasts in (a), (b), and (c), using MAD, and indicate;the most accurate.;26. Carpet City wants to develop a means to;forecast its carpet sales. The store manager believes that the store?s sales;are directly related to the number of new housing starts in town. The manager;has gathered data from county records on monthly house construction permits and;from store records on monthly sales. These data are as follows;Monthly Carpet;Sales (1,000 yd.);Monthly;Construction Permits;5;21;10;35;4;10;3;12;8;16;2;9;12;41;11;15;9;18;14;26;a. Develop a linear regression model for these data and forecast carpet;sales if 30 construction permits for new homes are filed.;b. Determine the strength of the causal relationship between monthly;sales and new home construction by using correlation.;27. The manager of Gilley?s Ice Cream Parlor needs;an accurate forecast of the demand for ice cream. The store orders ice cream;from a distributor a week ahead, if the store orders too little, it loses business;and if it orders too much, the extra must be thrown away. The manager believes;that a major determinant of ice cream sales is temperature (i.e., the hotter;the weather, the more ice cream people buy). Using an almanac, the manager has;determined the average daytime temperature for 10 weeks, selected at random, and;from store records he has determined the ice cream consumption for the same 10;weeks. These data are summarized as follows;Week;Average;Temperature;(degrees);Ice Cream Sold;(gal.);1;73;110;2;65;95;3;81;135;4;90;160;5;75;97;6;77;105;7;82;120;8;93;175;9;86;140;10;79;121;a. Develop a linear regression model for these data and forecast the ice;cream consumption if the average weekly daytime temperature is expected to be;85 degrees.;b. Determine the strength of the linear relationship between temperature;and ice cream consumption by using correlation.;28. Compute the coefficient of;determination for the data in Problem 27 and explain its meaning.

 

Paper#60798 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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