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QSO 510 Final Exam W2 2014




Question;QSO 510Final Exam;Directions;This exam consists of 5 problems and is an open-book exam with no time limit. All;work should be done individually.Word-process;your solutions within this template and show all steps used in arriving at the;final answers. Incomplete solutions will receive partial credit. Copy and paste;all necessary data from Excel into this document and create tables as needed.;Problem 1;Suppose a;manufacturing company makes a certain item. The time to produce each item is;normally distributed around a mean of 27 minutes with a standard deviation of 2.5;minutes. Thus, the population of production times is normal in shape. Find the;mean and standard deviation of the sample.;Sample size is 100.;Problem 2;The average prices for a product in 12 stores in a city are shown;below.;$2.99, $2.85, $3.25;$3.55, $3.00, $2.99, $2.76, $3.50, $3.20, $2.85, $3.75, $3.85;Test the hypothesis that the average price is higher than $2.87.;Use level of significancea;= 0.05.;Problem 3;A;store wishes to predict net profit as a function of sales for the next year. The;following table gives the years 1998 to 2005.;Year;Sales;(thousands of dollars);Net Profit;1998;51;5;1999;55;10.2;2000;65;9.6;2001;82;-3;2002;75;2.8;2003;71;3.2;2004;82;-2.3;2005;81;-2.6;(a) Graph;the points from 1998 through 2005 on a scatter diagram using Sales as the;independent variable and Net Profit as the dependent variable.;(b) Draw;the regression line on the graph you constructed in Part (a).;(c) What;is the value of the coefficient of determination for this regression model?;Comment on the strength of the regression line for this model.;(d) What;is the predicted net profit for 2006 if sales are expected to be 125?;Problem 4;Last week?s sales of iMac computers at an Apple Store in Oklahoma;City, OK, are shown in the following table;Day;Sales;(Dollars);1;180;2;150;3;210;4;225;5;195;6;190;7;230;Use the 3-day;moving average method for forecasting days 4?7.Use the 3-day weighted moving average;method for forecasting days 4?7. Use Weight 1 day ago = 2, Weight 2 days ago = 4;and Weight 3 days ago = 3.Compare the techniques using the mean absolute;deviation (MAD).Problem;5;The;following table shows six years of average annual cost-of-living index data;Year;Annual Cost of Living Index;2005;98.2;2006;101.3;2007;103.7;2008;105.8;2009;111.4;2010;121.9;2011;134.3;2012;128.6;2013;125.2;Forecast the average annual cost of living;index for all years from 2008 to 2013. Use a 3-year weighted moving average;with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2. Use the largest weight with the most recent;data.Forecast the average annual cost of living index;using exponential smoothing with? = 0.7 for all years from 2008 to 2014.;Use the rate for 2008 as the starting forecast for 2008.Which;of the methods in parts (a) and (b) produces better forecasts for the 3 years;from 2011 to 2013? Answer on the basis of mean square error (MAD).


Paper#60818 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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