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MATHS - Compute MAD and MSE




Question;This assignment requires you to use Excel. In question 3, you will use the regression tool from the analysis toolpack. Make sure to use the Assignment 5 template found in your online course when you turn in your answers.;Question 1Determine the error for each of the following forecasts. Compute MAD and MSE.Period Value Forecast Error1 202 ? ?2 191 2023 173 1924 169 1815 171 1746 175 1727 182 1748 196 1799 204 18910 219 19811 227 211;Question 2The U.S. Census Bureau publishes data on factory orders for all manufacturing, durable goods, and nondurable goods industries. Shown here are factory orders in the United States over a 13-year period ($ billion).;a. Use these data to develop forecasts for the years 6 through 13 using a 5-year moving average.;b. Use these data to develop forecasts for the years 6 through 13 using a 5-year weighted moving average. Weight the most recent year by 6, the previous year by 4, the year before that by 2, and the other years by 1.;c. Compute the errors of the forecasts in parts (a) and (b) and then the MAD. Which forecast is better?;Year Factory Orders ($ billion)1 2,512.72 2,739.23 2,874.94 2,934.15 2,865.76 2,978.57 3,092.48 3,356.89 3,607.610 3,749.311 3,952.012 3,949.013 4,137.0;Question 3The ?Economic Report to the President of the United States? included data on the amounts of manufacturers? new and unfilled orders in millions of dollars. Shown here are the figures for new orders over a 21-year period. Use Excel to develop a regression model to fit the trend effects for these data. Use a linear model and then try a quadratic model. How well does either model fit the data?;Year Total Number of New Orders1 55,0222 55,9213 64,1 824 76,0035 87,3276 85,1397 99,5138 115,1099 131,62910 147,60411 156,35912 168,02513 162,14014 175,45115 192,87916 195,70617 195,20418 209,38919 227,025;Template to answer;In the summary tables below, insert only the answers. You will show work after the summary section.Question 1MAD MSE;Question 2 MAD for part a MAD for part b Recommended forecast method:Question 3 R-squared for Linear model R-squared for quadratic model Regression formula for linear model Regression formula for quadratic model WorkShow all your work for the questions below.Question 1Show the errors you calculatedQuestion 2Show the two forecasts and the errorsQuestion 3Show the regression output tables


Paper#61001 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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