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Statistics Final assignment with Excel Data attachement




Question;Project 2 mandates prompt the time series assessment for;the Quebec Births data set. The student is given a data file that;encompasses daily births from 01 January 1977 through 31 December 1989.;Students are required to consider several time series models (see mandate;instructions) and to derive the quantitatively best projection model for;January 1990 births. The extent of the projection (1 to 31 days) will be;determined by the chosen model. The madates provide the detail for the;expectations of the analysis.;Quebec Daily Births Analysis and Projections;Use the Quebec birth data as the source for analyses;Quebec birth data includes a date variable and a birth;variable;Quebec birth data starts on 01 January 1977 and ends on;31 December 1989;Add variables that will reflect the period, month, day;of month, and day of week for the data.;A ?quarterly? variable may also be considered for the;data set;Describe the quantitative characteristics of the;dependent variable.;Develop forecasting models for January 1990 Quebec;births.;The four major time series models must be developed.;Na?ve;Moving average;Define and defend the number of periods;Exponential smoothing;Define and defend the selected alpha value;Time regression;Seasonal models may be considered;Seasonal na?ve;Seasonal time regression;Determine the quantitatively best forecasting model;The MAD statistic should be considered for forecasting;accuracy;Present each model graphically;Observations and forecasts should be present on each;graph;Present relevant tables for quantitative definition, MAD;comparison, and forecast value(s);Present the forecasting model (algorithm) for the;selected model;Explain the time parameters for the forecast;Given the questions above;Develop a paper that contains the following modules;Problem/Objective Statement;Questions and/or objectives;Data Definition;Methodology;Solution;Solution Interpretation;Data Qualifiers;Make sure each question is answered or objective is;completed.;Use tables, graphs, and narrative where appropriate.;See grading rubrics;Zoom Controls;Below is the Excel;information needed for the assignment, most of this assignment requires Excel


Paper#61373 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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