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Statistics Final assignment




Question;Project 2 mandates prompt the time series assessment for the Quebec Births data set. The student is given a data file that encompasses daily births from 01 January 1977 through 31 December 1989. Students are required to consider several time series models (see mandate instructions) and to derive the quantitatively best projection model for January 1990 births. The extent of the projection (1 to 31 days) will be determined by the chosen model. The madates provide the detail for the expectations of the analysis.Quebec Daily Births Analysis and ProjectionsUse the Quebec birth data as the source for analysesQuebec birth data includes a date variable and a birth variableQuebec birth data starts on 01 January 1977 and ends on 31 December 1989Add variables that will reflect the period, month, day of month, and day of week for the data.A ?quarterly? variable may also be considered for the data setDescribe the quantitative characteristics of the dependent variable.Develop forecasting models for January 1990 Quebec births.The four major time series models must be developed.Na?veMoving averageDefine and defend the number of periodsExponential smoothingDefine and defend the selected alpha valueTime regressionSeasonal models may be consideredSeasonal na?veSeasonal time regressionDetermine the quantitatively best forecasting modelThe MAD statistic should be considered for forecasting accuracyPresent each model graphicallyObservations and forecasts should be present on each graphPresent relevant tables for quantitative definition, MAD comparison, and forecast value(s)Present the forecasting model (algorithm) for the selected modelExplain the time parameters for the forecastGiven the questions above:Develop a paper that contains the following modules:Problem/Objective StatementQuestions and/or objectivesData DefinitionMethodologySolutionSolution InterpretationData QualifiersMake sure each question is answered or objective is completed.Use tables, graphs, and narrative where appropriate.See grading rubricsZoom ControlsBelow is the Excel information needed for the assignment, most of this assignment requires Excel


Paper#61374 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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