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Forecasting Using Different Methods

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Forecasting Using Different Methods;Problem #4 a-e;Sales for the past 12 months at Dalworth Company are given here.;Month Sales($ Millions) Month Sales ($Millions);January 20 July 53;February 24 August 62;March 27 September 54;April 31 October 36;May 37 November 32;June 47 December 29;Consider the sales data for Dalworth Company given in problem 2.;a) Use a thre e-month weighted moving average to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Use weights of (3/6), (2/6), and (1/6), giving more weight to more recent data.;b) Use exponential smoothing with a =0.6 to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Assume that the initial forecast for January was $22 million. Start error measurement in April.;c) Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?;d) Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?;e) Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?

 

Paper#77956 | Written in 18-Jul-2015

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